Jack Lowden Leads the Next James Bond Odds in 2026
Trying to work out who might inherit James Bond’s tuxedo, licence to kill and impossible travel schedule? The latest James Bond betting snapshot gives fans a fresh shortlist to argue over, with Slow Horses actor Jack Lowden at the top and former market leader Callum Turner in second place. The figures were published for Global James Bond Day on 5 October 2026, when the identity of Daniel Craig’s successor remains unannounced.
This is a guide to what the betting market is saying at that particular moment, not a casting announcement and not a claim that the studio has privately selected one of these actors. Action Network says its update averages odds from bookmakers. Those odds reflect market prices, which can react to interviews, entertainment reporting, speculation and betting activity. They are useful as a snapshot of attention, but they do not open a window into an audition room.
The top five have numerical prices in the supplied update: Lowden at 4/5, Turner at 11/4, Jack O’Connell at 10/1, Harris Dickinson at 58/5 and Tom Francis at 66/5. The update also places Leo Suter, Donal Finn, Daniel Ings, Tom Holland and Josh O’Connor among the remaining ten contenders, without supplying individual odds for those five. We keep that distinction clear rather than inventing prices.
You will also find a plain-English explanation of fractional and American odds, why the listed implied probabilities do not add neatly to 100 per cent, what recent endorsements can and cannot tell us, and why a Bond casting decision involves much more than looking right in a dinner jacket. The final ranking below follows the reported order, from the tenth name up to the current frontrunner.
The franchise itself is at a particular turning point. Amazon MGM’s official update confirms that the search is underway and names Denis Villeneuve as director, Amy Pascal and David Heyman as producers, Tanya Lapointe as executive producer, and Steven Knight as screenwriter. The studio has not named the next 007 in that update. That gap between a real production taking shape and an unknown lead is exactly where rumours and odds flourish.
A note on the numbers: odds can change, bookmakers can disagree, and averaged prices may not describe a single market at one exact minute. The percentages quoted here are the implied probabilities printed in the supplied Action Network update. They are not a guarantee, a measured casting probability or a recommendation to place a bet. The list is ranked by the market snapshot, while the commentary explains the context around each name.
For more official context, see the James Bond Day announcement from 007.com and Amazon MGM’s update on the search. Action Network supplied the odds data and should be credited whenever the figures are reused.
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Source and credit: Action Network’s James Bond Day 2026 odds tracker; figures reflect the snapshot reported on 5 October 2026.
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The ten names in the latest James Bond odds
The countdown follows the order in the supplied 5 October market update, starting with number ten and ending with the frontrunner. The five names with published prices are identified with fractional odds first, followed by the source’s American format and implied probability. The remaining five are included in the order supplied, with no numbers added where the source did not provide them.
10. Josh O’Connor
Josh O’Connor is the final name in this ten-person snapshot, and the supplied update does not attach an individual price to him. The credit named alongside him is Challengers, a film that put him in a sharply observed romantic and sporting triangle opposite Zendaya and Mike Faist. His screen presence tends towards ambiguity: he can make a character guarded, funny, self-possessed or faintly unreadable without announcing which quality should win.
There is a useful contrast between O’Connor’s recent screen identity and the classic action-hero outline. He has demonstrated that he can anchor a story through character tension and awkward charm rather than volume. Bond also needs an actor who can move between social performance and private danger; the role asks its lead to look comfortable in a room full of power while suggesting he has already mapped the exits.
Why he ranks tenth: this is the lowest position among the ten names in the supplied list, and there is no numerical price here to suggest stronger market backing. That does not mean he is a weak dramatic choice. It means the public odds snapshot, as provided, offers less measurable support for him than it does for the five priced actors near the top.
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9. Tom Holland
Tom Holland arrives with a very different audience profile. The supplied update identifies him with Spider-Man, a role that has made him globally recognisable as a fast-moving, physically capable young hero. The Bond comparison is an obvious one to make and an easy one to overstate: both characters perform danger, both require athletic action work, and both can carry a major franchise. But they are built around different kinds of screen energy.
That difference could be a challenge or an opportunity. A new Bond actor would not have to imitate the existing version of 007; a reboot can establish a fresh age, tone and starting point. Holland’s profile also demonstrates the scale of attention attached to a casting decision. A global star can generate immediate curiosity, but that visibility comes with expectations about whether audiences can separate him from a familiar superhero persona.
Why he ranks ninth: the update places Holland among the remaining five names without a supplied price, so we should not pretend the exact gap between him and the actors above or below is measurable. His inclusion reflects familiar speculation around a major star with action-franchise experience. The lower position in this countdown simply preserves the order provided by the source. It is not a forecast that he will be passed over, and it says nothing about an official shortlist.
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8. Daniel Ings
Daniel Ings is linked in the supplied update to The Gentlemen, the crime series whose ensemble operates in a world of aristocratic privilege, organised crime and increasingly unstable alliances. Ings has built a career across television and film with a quality that suits stories where charm can turn into menace in the space of a conversation.
A Bond lead does not need to arrive with the same level of international name recognition as a superhero star. The franchise has often benefited from actors whose screen identity could be reshaped by a formal introduction: the suit, the music, the first mission and the people Bond encounters. Ings’ theatrical and television experience offers a different kind of case than the obvious action contenders.
Why he ranks eighth: he sits in the lower half of the named top ten in this update and has no individual odds figure attached. That places him below the contenders for whom the source gives a market price, while the supplied sequence keeps him above the final two names. His ranking should be read narrowly as the source’s current ordering. It is a clue to the conversation, not proof of casting conversations or a studio preference.
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7. Donal Finn
Donal Finn is identified with The Wheel of Time, the fantasy series adapted from Robert Jordan’s novels. That credit puts him inside a large-scale genre production, where an actor has to work within an established mythology, a broad ensemble and an audience already invested in the source material. For a Bond casting conversation, that sort of experience matters less as direct evidence of spy credentials and more as proof of familiarity with the demands of a franchise.
The contrast between fantasy and espionage is also useful. A spy film tends to trade magic systems and invented histories for institutions, intelligence, surveillance and international politics, but both genres ask viewers to follow a world that extends beyond the immediate scene. Finn’s profile is less widely associated with contemporary action than Holland’s or Lowden’s, which may make him a less obvious choice to casual observers.
Why he ranks seventh: Finn appears within the remaining five contenders named by the source, but this update gives no separate odds for him. That makes any precise probability claim impossible. His position here follows the supplied order and the fact that he sits in the middle of that unpriced group. He represents the less familiar side of the market: an actor whose possible candidacy invites questions about the franchise’s appetite for discovery, rather than confirming a rumour.
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6. Leo Suter
Leo Suter’s listed credit is Vikings: Valhalla, a historical action drama that places him in a physically demanding, period world of conflict and shifting loyalties. The association gives a Bond casting discussion a straightforward hook: he has worked in a project with scale, action and a strong visual identity. Bond does not fight with swords or lead Viking raids, of course, but the broad skills overlap.
Suter’s screen identity may be less familiar to viewers who do not follow the series, which is part of why a new casting could be intriguing. The next 007 does not have to be chosen from the biggest names on a speculative list. A less established lead could make the first film feel like a discovery, while the supporting cast and director provide the franchise’s familiar weight.
Why he ranks sixth: the source includes Suter among its other top-ten contenders but does not publish an individual price in the information supplied. He therefore sits just outside the five actors with specific odds. That order gives him the strongest place in the unpriced group, while still leaving him below the numerical top five. It is a position worth watching if a future update gives him a market price, but this snapshot alone does not tell us how close he is to the frontrunners.
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5. Tom Francis
Tom Francis is the highest-placed entrant in the priced five after the headline trio and Harris Dickinson. The source gives him American odds of +1320, fractional odds of 66/5 and a quoted implied probability of 7. 04 per cent. The supplied note identifies him as the Olivier Award-winning star of Sunset Boulevard and says his name entered the tracker after reports that he had auditioned. His place in the market is therefore real but distinctly outside the leading trio.
A stage performance can show a different set of strengths from a screen action role. Carrying a demanding live production night after night requires stamina, precision, vocal control and a clear relationship with an audience. Bond films also depend on control: the character rarely explains everything he is thinking, and the actor has to make composure readable without turning it into blankness.
Why he ranks fifth: he is the fifth name in the supplied top ten and the lowest-priced member of its top five. The 7.04 per cent figure gives him a measurable place in the market, but it is far below Lowden’s listed chance and below the other three named prices. His rank is a combination of the source’s order and the reported number, not a judgement on his acting ability.
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4. Harris Dickinson
Harris Dickinson is listed at +1160, or 58/5, with a quoted implied probability of 7. 94 per cent. That puts him slightly ahead of Tom Francis on the supplied prices, though still well behind the top three. The source notes that Dickinson has appeared in the tracker since 2023, reached as high as second earlier in 2026, and is currently filming Sam Mendes’ Beatles biopics, in which he plays John Lennon. That keeps him firmly in the conversation, though not near the current top two.
Dickinson’s screen work has moved between independent drama and larger productions, giving him a profile that can read as both contemporary and adaptable. Bond casting is a balancing act between history and reset. The lead has to feel capable of entering the established mythology while bringing a new rhythm to familiar rituals: the introduction, the briefing, the first encounter with an antagonist, the moment a mission stops being tidy.
Why he ranks fourth: his 7.94 per cent implied figure is above Francis’ 7.04 per cent, but below O’Connell’s 9.09 per cent and far below Turner and Lowden. His sustained presence in the odds tracker gives him a stronger case than a newly mentioned long shot, while the gap to the top three remains substantial.
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3. Jack O’Connell
Jack O’Connell sits third at +1000, equivalent to 10/1 and an implied probability of 9. 09 per cent in the supplied update. The source says this is a career-high place in its tracking and connects the rise to director Danny Boyle publicly backing him as his pick for Bond. Boyle directed No Time to Die before leaving the project over creative differences; his preference is an opinion from a filmmaker, not an announcement from Amazon MGM.
O’Connell’s work has often carried a restless, physical intensity. The press note points to his appearance in Boyle’s newspaper drama Ink, which premiered at the Venice Film Festival, and the coverage around Boyle also notes the director’s praise for O’Connell’s performance in Back to Black. He is not simply being discussed because he fits one neat image of Bond.
Why he ranks third: the 9.09 per cent figure is the highest among the three names outside the leading pair, and Boyle’s public endorsement gives the movement a recognisable news hook. The price still puts him well behind Turner and Lowden, and a director’s personal choice is not a casting signal from the studio. He ranks third because the available market evidence supports a stronger position than the other two lower-priced names, while leaving a large distance to first.
You can also read The Independent’s report on Danny Boyle naming O’Connell as his personal pick. The distinction is important: it documents Boyle’s opinion, not a casting announcement.
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2. Callum Turner
Callum Turner is second at +275, or 11/4, with a quoted implied probability of 26. 67 per cent. The supplied update says he has held first place multiple times during the tracker’s run, but Lowden moved ahead in recent weeks. Turner is familiar to audiences through Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them and Masters of the Air, two very different projects that place him in large-scale genre storytelling. One is a fantasy franchise; the other is a wartime drama.
His earlier time at the top of the tracker is important context. A market leader can lose the headline without disappearing from the race, especially when the underlying casting remains unconfirmed. Turner’s second-place price is not a token showing; it places him well above O’Connell and the rest of the priced group. He is also a useful example of how Bond speculation changes.
Why he ranks second: the 11/4 price is a substantial market position and the supplied tracker records that he has previously led. The gap from Turner to Lowden is large in implied terms, but he remains the closest contender in this update by a clear margin. Second is therefore a genuine front-runner position in the market, even if the current momentum belongs to someone else.
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1. Jack Lowden
Jack Lowden is the current frontrunner, priced at -125 in American odds, which the source expresses as 4/5 fractionally and a 55. 56 per cent implied probability. The update says he overtook Turner in recent weeks. It links the shift to broadcaster Richard Osman saying on The Rest Is Entertainment podcast that Lowden was under serious consideration, followed by Slow Horses co-star Gary Oldman saying in a television interview that he was crossing his fingers for Lowden. The distinction is the whole point of this update: it captures who is priced first today, not who has been chosen.
Lowden is the candidate whose recent screen identity most directly overlaps with the world of intelligence work. In Slow Horses, he is part of an MI5 team whose members are sidelined, underestimated or difficult to manage, and the series finds drama in the gap between institutional procedure and messy human behaviour. That is not the same role as James Bond, whose films lean towards globe-spanning action, glamour and high-stakes set pieces.
For the official production update behind this conversation, read Amazon MGM’s statement on the next James Bond film.
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What the odds actually say
Odds are a price, not a promise. Fractional odds describe the potential profit relative to a stake: 4/5 means a £5 stake would return £4 profit if successful, plus the original stake; 11/4 means £4 staked would produce £11 profit, plus the stake. For a long-shot price such as 10/1, a £1 stake would produce £10 profit plus the stake. That simple format is why fractional odds remain familiar to many British readers.
American prices use positive and negative numbers. A positive price such as +275 indicates how much profit a £100-equivalent stake would make under the market’s terms, while a negative price such as -125 indicates the amount a bettor would need to risk to make a £100 profit. The article reports the American values provided by the source but puts their fractional equivalents first in the top-five list, which is easier to scan for a UK audience.
An implied probability translates a price into a rough percentage. It is a mathematical conversion, not a poll and not a forecast from the casting team. At 4/5, the raw implied percentage is 5 divided by 9, or 55.56 per cent. At 11/4, it is 4 divided by 15, or 26.67 per cent. For plus-money American prices, the familiar calculation is 100 divided by the price plus 100. This gives a shared language for comparing different formats, but it does not remove the bookmaker’s margin.
The five percentages provided here total about 106.3 per cent. That does not mean there is a 106 per cent chance of the role being cast. Bookmaker odds normally include a margin, sometimes called overround, and these are averages of prices gathered across bookmakers rather than necessarily one clean set from a single market. Each actor’s price can be formed independently, markets may include other names, and prices can be rounded. The sum therefore should not be treated as a probability distribution that adds to exactly 100 per cent.
This is also why a 55.56 per cent implied probability does not mean Lowden has been assessed by casting professionals as more likely than not to be hired. It says that the current price converts to that raw percentage before accounting for the market’s margin. A different bookmaker can post a different number; a price can move; and a market can be thin enough that a small amount of activity has an outsized effect. That is a feature of market odds, not proof that the market knows the result.
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Conclusion
The latest James Bond odds put Jack Lowden clearly in front, with Callum Turner still the closest challenger and Jack O’Connell leading the next group after Danny Boyle publicly named him as his pick. Harris Dickinson and Tom Francis round out the priced top five, while Leo Suter, Donal Finn, Daniel Ings, Tom Holland and Josh O’Connor complete the names in the supplied top ten.
What connects the strongest cases is range. The next 007 needs to be credible in a high-pressure mission, persuasive in a quiet conversation and distinctive enough to make the role feel newly alive. Lowden’s spy-series association makes the frontrunner story easy to understand; Turner has spent time at the top of the tracker; O’Connell brings intensity and a director’s public endorsement. Dickinson and Francis represent very different forms of visibility and performance experience.
Lowden earns the top spot because the 5 October snapshot gives him the shortest price and the largest raw implied probability. That is the clearest answer to the narrow question this article asks: who currently leads the market? It is not the answer to the wider question of who will be cast. The studio has announced a creative team, but the identity of Craig’s successor remains a separate matter until Amazon MGM says otherwise.
Who would you like to see take the role, and which actor do you think would bring something new to 007? Share your pick and your own ranking. The conversation is more fun when the odds are a starting point rather than the final word.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favourite to be the next James Bond in the 2026 odds?
In Action Network’s James Bond Day update dated 5 October 2026, Jack Lowden is the leading name at 4/5 fractional odds, or -125 in American odds. The supplied update gives that price a raw implied probability of 55.56 per cent. Callum Turner is second at 11/4, with Jack O’Connell third. These are bookmaker prices averaged by the source, not an official casting announcement from Amazon MGM Studios.
Has Jack Lowden been confirmed as the next James Bond?
No. The odds update identifies Lowden as the frontrunner, and it describes remarks from Richard Osman and Gary Oldman that helped bring attention to him. Neither remark is confirmation from Amazon MGM Studios. The studio’s official update says the search is underway and names the creative team for the next film, but does not identify the actor who will play 007. Lowden’s position should therefore be described as market leader, not confirmed casting.
What are Callum Turner’s James Bond odds?
The update gives Callum Turner +275 in American odds, which is 11/4 fractionally. Its listed raw implied probability is 26.67 per cent. Turner has held the top position in the tracker multiple times, according to the supplied source, but Lowden overtook him in recent weeks. A price can move, and different bookmakers can offer different odds, so treat this as the dated snapshot published on 5 October 2026.
What are Jack O’Connell’s odds to become James Bond?
Jack O’Connell is listed at +1000, or 10/1, with a supplied implied probability of 9.09 per cent. He ranks third in the update. The source links his career-high position in its tracking to director Danny Boyle publicly backing him as his choice for Bond. Boyle’s endorsement is a personal opinion, not a studio casting confirmation, and the odds do not show whether O’Connell has received an offer.
How do fractional and American James Bond odds compare?
Fractional odds show potential profit compared with the stake: 10/1 means a £1 stake would make £10 profit if successful, plus the stake. American odds use positive or negative numbers; +275 indicates potential profit on a 100-unit stake, while -125 indicates the amount to risk to make 100 units. The article gives UK fractional equivalents alongside the original American prices for clarity. Exact returns depend on the bookmaker’s terms and currency.
Why do the implied probabilities add up to more than 100 per cent?
The five percentages quoted in the update add up to roughly 106.3 per cent. That can happen because bookmaker odds include a margin, known as the overround, and because this update averages odds across bookmakers rather than presenting one perfectly matched market. The figures may also be rounded or sourced from prices that do not include every possible outcome. They are not a complete probability model and should not be normalised into a claim about who will be cast.
Who are the top ten James Bond contenders in this update?
The supplied ordering is Jack Lowden, Callum Turner, Jack O’Connell, Harris Dickinson and Tom Francis in the priced top five, followed by Leo Suter, Donal Finn, Daniel Ings, Tom Holland and Josh O’Connor. The information supplied includes odds for only the first five. It does not provide individual prices for the other names, so this article does not assign them invented probabilities.
What has Amazon MGM confirmed about the next James Bond film?
Amazon MGM’s official update confirms that the search for the next Bond is underway. It names Denis Villeneuve as director, Amy Pascal and David Heyman as producers, Tanya Lapointe as executive producer, and Steven Knight as screenwriter. The update does not announce the next actor. For any casting claim, distinguish the verified creative-team information from interviews, rumours, odds and fan speculation.
When will the next James Bond actor be announced?
The official Amazon MGM update linked here does not give a casting announcement date. Betting coverage, interviews and speculation may suggest a timeframe, but without a studio statement there is no confirmed date to report. The safest way to follow the news is to check the official James Bond or Amazon MGM channels and reliable entertainment trade reporting, while noting the publication date of any odds table.
Where can I watch James Bond films in the UK?
Streaming and digital rental rights can change, so this article does not claim that a particular Bond film is currently included with a specific UK subscription. Check the current listings in your streaming apps or digital rental stores before planning a watchlist. The franchise’s official website and the relevant UK services can help you find current options; availability may differ between subscription streaming, rental and purchase.
More Places to Find Great Movies and TV Shows
For casting updates and film-business reporting, read trade publications such as Variety, Deadline and The Hollywood Reporter. For film databases, credits and audience information, IMDb can help you identify a title or cast member. Rotten Tomatoes aggregates critics’ reviews and audience ratings, while the official 007 website is best for franchise announcements and Bond-related material. Always check the original source when a headline quotes a rumour or an odds movement.
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